Gold – Weekly Review
In this edition of the Gold Report, we take a close look at the key events on the horizon, the likelihood of different scenarios playing out, and what they could mean for gold’s next move. We analyze recent technical signals and price action across several time frames to highlight developing trends and identify where the next potential turning points might emerge.
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CANDLES
Gold ended the week with a mix of conflicting signals. On one hand, the daily frame is bullish and shows better odds for higher prices in the short term. On the other hand, the weekly closure is a double failure—gold couldn’t push above the red line needed to confirm a bottom and even failed to close above the previous week’s high. All of this happened alongside diverging indicators, which is a major technical concern that could trigger an abrupt pullback.
Meanwhile, the bearish MACD momentum continues to build quietly beneath the surface and now looks poised to spread to the 8D frame.
As discussed previously, “a particular concern is the continued no-break advance in the monthly RSI, which has not been this elevated since 1980—45 years ago. Apparently, this implies a new reality in which gold is never corrected again. However, statistical analysis suggests a potential loss of about 35% if gold follows the average historical path after such an RSI stretch. In May, gold formed a bearish candle—June will show whether that signal is confirmed. Gold is now in a zugzwang position: any move on the monthly frame will only worsen either the technical conditions or the candle structure.”
Triple Top
I have been tracking the Triple Top and there is no change to this pattern at the moment.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Short Term
While the blue count barely remains on the table, the purple and red scenarios are gaining traction.
Summary:
Gold closed the first half of 2025 flashing several warning signs. Larger time frames remain overextended and deeply overbought, while smaller frames are steadily building bearish momentum. This pressure is growing gradually, with multiple bullish bounces along the way that keep the trend in check—for now.
At the same time, while the bearish odds are clearly increasing, they haven’t yet extended convincingly beyond the weekly frames. The short-term outlook is bullish but leans closer to neutral, while the mid-term picture is neutral but tilting bearish. Overall, the odds remain rather neutral, and this tug-of-war is far from settled.
Happy Trading!
