Oil – Daily Analysis
In this update, we take a focused look at oil’s current setup—analyzing candlestick patterns, multi-timeframe signals, and Elliott Wave structures. We identify the key levels, formations, and most probable next moves before they unfold.
CANDLES
Oil formed a bullish continuation candle today, which helped lift the 2D, 3D, and 10D frames—all of which printed various bullish candles and combinations. As a result, the short-term and parts of the mid-term outlook have turned bullish, increasing the odds of a move higher in the near term. However, any upside is likely to be limited due to several technical constraints.
Meanwhile, the monthly candle remains on track to close with a bearish combo, regardless of whether it ends green or red—unless oil rallies by roughly 13% over the next two days, which seems unlikely.
The long-term frames continue to lean firmly bearish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
The purple count is now the primary scenario, with wave c of (b) likely unfolding as an impulse (see chart below). Wave b appears to have formed a triangle, and wave (b) as a whole seems to be developing into a reverse complexity pattern—a rare but technically valid formation.
The larger Flag pattern remains intact.
Summary:
After today’s closure, oil bounced and flipped several short- and mid-term frames bullish. The wave up appears impulsive and carries potential for further extension in the near term.
However, larger timeframes continue to show a strong tendency to form bearish combinations. With all frames from the weekly upward still holding bearish trends, the mid- and long-term outlook remains tilted to the downside.
Happy Trading!
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