Gold – Monthly Review
This edition of Gold Monthly focuses on the recent monthly closure and the critical shifts underway. We examine key technical patterns and signals across multiple timeframes, outline the most probable scenarios, and highlight the pivotal levels that could define gold’s next major move. For those aiming to stay ahead of the curve—not chase it—this is the update that matters.
CANDLES
Gold has yet to make a decisive statement on the monthly frame. While it technically closed with a doji, discrepancies between the candles on Gold (spot), XAU, and GC futures suggest we should treat the monthly signals with caution. The overall structure continues to resemble the formation of a major long-term top.
The mid-term frames are under sustained bearish pressure. The weekly, 8-day, and 10-day charts are increasingly bearish, and momentum continues to tilt in that direction. In contrast, the short-term charts showed a Tower Bottom formation, and the most recent weekly candle printed a Bullish Engulfing, giving bulls a short-term edge.
Still, concerns remain. Bearish MACD momentum is quietly intensifying. The 8-day MACD has confirmed a bearish cross, and the 10-day is likely to follow shortly. While the short-term outlook is bullish, the mid-term is deteriorating, and the long-term remains neutral—with a troubling technical backdrop.
As discussed previously, “a particular concern is the continued no-break advance in the monthly RSI, which has not been this elevated since 1980—45 years ago. Apparently, this implies a new reality in which gold is never corrected again. However, statistical analysis suggests a potential loss of about 35% if gold follows the average historical path after such an RSI stretch. In May, gold formed a bearish candle—June will show whether that signal is confirmed. Gold is now in a zugzwang position: any move on the monthly frame will only worsen either the technical conditions or the candle structure.”
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
Short Term
The most concerning scenario is the potential formation of a triangle, marked in cyan. As of now, there is no clear impulsive wave to the downside. If this pattern is unfolding, a clean impulse may only begin after registering a new all-time high.
There is no highly probable path at the micro level. An impulse up has slightly better odds.
Summary:
Gold closed July with several uncertainties on the monthly frame. While the chart remains strongly overbought, a clear directional decision has yet to emerge—and this state of indecision may persist for some time. Mid-term frames continue to deteriorate, potentially setting up a decisive impact on the long-term structure. Short-term momentum is bullish and could drive a new all-time high, but such a move might be short-lived, quickly reversing and altering the character of the wave structure.
Happy Trading!
