Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
Natural Gas just crossed a critical threshold—was it a warning shot or the start of something bigger? In this update, we apply our full technical arsenal—key support zones, wave projections, and multi-timeframe indicators—to uncover what’s really unfolding beneath the surface of this high-volatility market. Is this just the beginning of a much larger move? Let’s find out.
CANDLES
Natural Gas (NG) continues to trend bearish, with technical signals firmly aligned across short- and mid-term frames. The commodity is now on track to form a bearish 50/200 DMA “death cross” as early as tomorrow—an event that historically carries strong downside implications. Adding to the pressure, NG2 broke below the critical $3.007 level by just 0.1 basis point—a minor breach in magnitude, but a breach nonetheless.
Technically, NG remains bearish until a compelling bullish formation appears. Interestingly, today’s session closed with a bullish Harami candle—right after the pivotal break. Is this a final gasp before a sharper decline, or a potential setup for reversal? Let’s examine this scenario from the Elliott Wave perspective.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
NG2 broke below the $3.007 pivot, which technically allows for wave (c) of 2 to be considered minimally complete from an Elliott Wave perspective. That said, wave (c) would be classified as truncated, likely forming an ending diagonal—since its length fell short of the typical 1.0× wave (a) proportion.
What adds intrigue is the impulsive structure developing off yesterday’s low. While impulsive waves can certainly exist within broader corrective patterns, this one is notable. It coincides with a potentially bullish candle formation, adding weight to a possible reversal. The wave off the bottom is still in its early stages, but it carries strong potential to evolve into the beginning of a much larger impulsive move. Caution and close monitoring are warranted here.
SUMMARY:
While Natural Gas appears bearish across multiple timeframes, a small but critical setup in both candlesticks and Elliott Waves could shift the outlook dramatically tomorrow. The key level to watch is Monday’s high. A close above with a green candle—even by just 0.1 basis point—would confirm a bullish Harami reversal. If this occurs alongside a clearly impulsive wave structure to the upside, the probability of a substantial bullish reversal increases significantly. (And we remember the post-diagonal rallies, don’t we?)
On the other hand, failure to close above Monday’s high would likely confirm continued downside momentum and extend the bearish trajectory.
The sector has a chance. Let’s see if the bulls take it.
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Happy Trading!
