SP500 – Daily Analysis

Did the SPX just make another corrective bounce, or does this move have real momentum with potential for further extension? While others sort through the noise, we focus on what matters—candlesticks and their hidden messages. By decoding patterns, analyzing technical signals, and aligning them with Elliott Wave guidance, we piece together the clues to chart the most probable path forward.
CANDLES


SPX has effectively negated the bearish odds on the daily frame and appears poised for a continued rally. The 2D frame also closed with a bullish candle. While the weekly frame remains under the shadow of a Bearish Engulfing, sustained bullish momentum could invalidate those unconfirmed bearish signals.
Among the major ETFs, QQQ and SPY are showing strong bullish setups, with QQQ expected to record a 100/200 DMA “golden cross” tomorrow. DIA and IWM are technically weaker from a candlestick perspective, yet the long-term outlook remains bullish. As anticipated, IWM completed a 50/200 DMA golden cross.
From a technical standpoint, there are no major red flags at the moment. While maintaining caution is wise, the bulls still hold the advantage.
Elliott Waves




The ES green count has gained a few solid points in its favor and remains the primary scenario for now.
A break below $6239.50—currently a low-probability outcome—would invalidate the green count and shift the focus toward a larger zigzag structure, in line with either the blue or red count scenarios.
SUMMARY
The S&P 500 has increased its bullish odds in the short term. The next objective is to reverse or significantly reduce the bearish pressure on the weekly frame with Friday’s close. If successful, this could pave the way for a series of new all-time highs.
The long-term outlook for the S&P 500 remains firmly bullish.
SWING ROOM
As of the August 1 close, the Swing Room remained in CASH on SPY.

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Happy Trading!