Natural Gas – Long Term Forecast
Natural Gas is making big moves—and the charts are speaking loud. Maybe it’s time to zoom out, take the helicopter view, and make a few sharp adjustments. In this update, we bring out the full technical arsenal—critical support zones, wave projections, and multi-timeframe indicators—to reveal what’s really unfolding beneath the surface of this high-volatility market. This is the kind of view others wish they had.
CANDLES
While the daily and 2D frames closed with mostly neutral candles, the 15D printed a strong bearish continuation, and the weekly is on track to close with a bearish-to-neutral signal—unless NG rallies over 10% tomorrow to save the weekly and flip it bullish.
Yesterday, NG recorded a fresh 50/200 DMA “death cross,” but today the picture worsened—and significantly so. Zooming out to the 15D frame reveals the gravity of the momentum shift.
As shown on the chart below, the 15D frame has now recorded only its second-ever 50/200 MA “death cross.” The first occurrence in 2010 was followed by a decade-long bear market. To make matters worse, the 15D frame is now attempting a MACD bearish cross. If not reversed within the next 15 days, Natty could be staring at a decline lasting several months or even quarters.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, NG formed an ending diagonal of more than 10 years in the previous bear market. Something suggests history may be setting up to repeat itself.
Natural Gas remains bearish until a compelling bullish formation emerges.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Very Long Term
As shown on this long-term chart, which we began tracking in 2022, the blue path could emerge as the primary scenario, with the target for the end of wave C extending into the mid-2030s. If this proves to be the case, the potential ending diagonal could become a nightmare to forecast, forcing us to rely more heavily on candlestick signals than on any other tools.
It’s a complex case, and I’ll need more time to analyze it from multiple angles. We’ll continue this discussion in the upcoming weekly reports.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas has increased its mid-term bearish odds on the 15D frame, all but guaranteeing a bearish weekly closure and possibly a bearish monthly one as well. A quick statistical read on the recently recorded events paints a rather gloomy picture for NG bulls. However, from an economic standpoint, a prolonged period of low prices would benefit the end user and the broader economy.
At present, Natural Gas is leaning neutral-bearish in the short term and firmly bearish in the mid-term. But this is not the end of the story—more to come.
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Happy Trading!
