Gold – Weekly Analysis
Gold has been testing everyone’s patience, locked in a tight range around $3,400 since April. Each rally fizzles, each dip gets bought—leaving traders wondering: is this the calm resilience of healthy consolidation, or the slow, deliberate construction of an ironclad top?
In this update, we dig deeper into the “candlespeak” and technical signals across multiple timeframes to uncover what’s really taking shape beneath the surface. The answer could define gold’s next major move—and you’ll want to see it before the market tips its hand.
CANDLES
Gold’s trends remain bullish in the short term, with both the daily and weekly frames closing with bullish continuation candles. But zooming out tells a different story: mid-term frames have been under strong bearish pressure since April–May, when the weekly confirmed a reversal and the 10D printed a Bearish Engulfing that still stands undefeated. To overcome those bearish odds, gold would need to close above the noted line on August 21. The most recent 10D candle was an Inside Bearish, adding to the uncertainty.
For now, the short-term outlook stays bullish until negated, while the mid-term frames remain under sustained bearish control.
Bearish MACD momentum is quietly building. The 8-day MACD has already confirmed a bearish cross, and the 10-day is likely to follow soon. The key date to watch: August 12 for Gold Spot.
As discussed previously, “a particular concern is the continued no-break advance in the monthly RSI, which has not been this elevated since 1980—45 years ago. Apparently, this implies a new reality in which gold is never corrected again. However, statistical analysis suggests a potential loss of about 35% if gold follows the average historical path after such an RSI stretch. In May, gold formed a bearish candle—June will show whether that signal is confirmed. Gold is now in a zugzwang position: any move on the monthly frame will only worsen either the technical conditions or the candle structure.”
ELLIOTT WAVES
Short Term
The most concerning scenario is the potential formation of a triangle, marked in cyan. As of now, there is no clear impulsive wave in any direction and the pattern could extend horizontally.
Summary:
Gold remains a concern. While the short-term frames are barely bullish, the persistent weakness building on the mid-term frames adds a layer of uncertainty. The metal has hovered around the $3,400 level for nearly five months, and I am leaning toward the view that this is the formation of a top rather than a consolidation before another leg higher. On the larger frames, gold has been extremely overbought, with some indicators holding at levels never seen before. Given we’re looking at the monthly and larger frames, it’s normal for a decisive top to take months to form.
All in all, gold is barely bullish in the short term but undecided in the mid term. I’m patiently waiting for a decisive signal to break this horizontal move—one that will likely set the tone for the next major trend.
Happy Trading!
