Silver – Weekly Analysis
On Tuesday, the technical trigger highlighted in Monday’s Statistical Study was narrowly averted; by Friday, the signal printed. That puts us back at a 90/10 statistical split for the next move—an asymmetric setup that merits attention.
In this weekly update, we assess silver’s structure via price action, momentum, and Elliott Waves, reconcile the conflicting timeframes, and map the highest-probability near- and mid-term paths—along with the key levels that would invalidate them.
CANDLES:
Silver closed the week with an indecisive candle map: the daily leaned slightly bearish, while the 3D and weekly frames finished neutral. Trend gauges remain broadly bullish for now.
However, on Friday silver registered a 3D MACD bearish cross of unusually large magnitude in our dataset. Historically, this setup has been followed by a decline about 90% of the time. The average follow-on drop is ~19% from the most recent top, which implies a provisional target near $32.
Statistical Study – August 11, 2025
Elliott Waves
Long Term
No change to the long-term outlook. Silver has reached the target zone and could trigger a reversal signal at any moment.
Mid Term
The entire wave up that started in September 2022 may now be complete. A typical retracement for a structure of this magnitude would fall within the 38–62% range.
I’m tracking three counts with roughly equal probabilities; a decisive directional move will likely tip the odds.
SUMMARY
From a candlestick perspective, silver is broadly neutral. At the same time, it has registered a high-risk technical event that signal a momentum shift. The probability of a bear market has risen sharply, and a sizable downswing could develop soon. In short, the risk of a bearish reversal has increased further.
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