Dow Jones – Weekly Review
This week, the Dow’s candles posed the toughest riddle—clean trend elsewhere, muddled intent here. Was it a pause or a pivot in disguise?
In this review, we read the footprints: how the intraday wicks, weekly body, and mid-frame sequences fit (or clash) with momentum and structure. We’ll frame the highest-probability paths, the traps that could fool latecomers, and the levels that flip the script.
CANDLES
The Dow Jones closed the week with a puzzle. The DJIA missed negating the large red weekly candle by less than a point, while the DIA flashed a reversal by 5 bps – it’s totally contradicting signals. The weekly signal warrants caution.
Friday’s daily candle was red, but positioned for potentially a bullish continuation. The combo needs confirmation either way. Given the weekly ambiguity, the near-term odds are essentially 50/50.
Despite short-term uncertainty, the major trends remain intact to the upside. The long-term outlook stays firmly bullish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
(no change, just an updated chart)
I believe the Dow Jones is now positioned to follow the red path outlined in my long-term chart, last updated in December 2024. I’m keeping the original chart elements intact, as the current structure continues to align with that scenario. In this setup, wave 5 of the larger impulse could extend for a year or longer, potentially driving the Dow toward the $50,000+ level.
Road Map
The Dow Jones may have completed wave (iv) in red and begun wave (v). However, given the index’s history of expanding triangles across multiple degrees and the latest wave structure, the blue expanding triangle scenario cannot be ruled out.
Inverse Head & Shoulders (IHS) & Flag
On June 24, I set the next major target for the Dow Jones at $49,600, projecting about a 15% gain from the $43,200 level. That target remains intact.
SUMMARY:
The Dow Jones remains long-term bullish following the July monthly close. The sharp early-August pullback I anticipated is likely complete, though a final sharp leg down to finish an expanding triangle remains possible.
Long-term trends and probabilities continue to support a solidly bullish trajectory.
As noted in the June 1 Monthly Review: “The Dow Jones appears to be aligning with the red path shown on the long-term chart last updated in December 2024. If this scenario plays out, the index is currently in wave 5 of a larger impulse, which may continue for a year or longer and ultimately carry the Dow beyond 50,000.” This outlook remains valid.
Happy Trading!
