Silver – Monthly Analysis
In this update, we read silver’s structure through price action, momentum, and Elliott Waves, reconcile the conflicting timeframes, and map the highest-probability near- and mid-term paths with clear invalidation levels. With August’s monthly print now in, we fold the closure into the odds—marking what bulls must reclaim and what bears must defend, the levels that flip the script, and the trap risks on both sides. The goal: determine whether the latest push is impulsive or just another corrective pop before the next decisive move.
CANDLES:
Silver followed last week’s odds and closed August with a strong bullish print, even flipping the 3D MACD back to bullish (against the odds!). However, several frames finished well above their Bollinger Bands, a stretch that can invite a pullback—potentially a sharp one. So while the odds still favor higher levels, the risk of red prints on the monthly and 2M frames is elevated.
Elliott Waves
Long Term
Silver has reached the target zone and is signaling a possible move higher. Technicals support the hypothesis that the current wave is either C or 3, with a potential bullish path shown in blue. A decisive break above the 2011 high would likely invalidate the bearish red path. Note that in commodities, wave v can exceed wave iii.
Mid Term
There are a few reasons to believe the wave up that started in September 2022 may have extended into a final wave v. A reversal could be very sharp, especially if wave v stretches longer than wave iii.
SUMMARY
Silver remains bullish short to mid term, with momentum and structure supporting follow-through after August’s strong close. A clean push through major resistance—ultimately the 2011 high—would keep the upside in control and likely invalidate the bearish path. That said, larger frames are stretched, so a cooldown or pullback in the next 1–2 months wouldn’t be surprising. Base case: higher with dips treated as corrective, unless recent swing lows give way.
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