United Health – Long Term Forecast – $UNH
Back in December 2023, I flagged UnitedHealth—the Dow’s then-darling—as dangerously close to a top and warned of a possible 60% slide. Most waved it off, twirling a finger at their temples. Fast forward 22 months: UNH tags $234.60, a whisper above my $233.45 target—62% off the high. Call it what you like; “magnificent” will do. This forecast goes into our Track Record—a public gift.
And for those who still didn’t believe, February 2025 offered one last chance: a direct call. Anyone who listened avoided a 50% drop in six months, as the chart below shows.
But the victory lap ends here. The real question is what comes next—what’s around the corner, which levels flip control, and where the traps wait for late chasers. Let’s open the playbook.
CANDLES
In August, UNH printed a strong bullish Harami with high odds of follow-through. Three weeks ago, the weekly frame formed a Tower Bottom, and since then the bullish odds have spread to the larger 10D and 15D frames. Taken together, the candles argue that a major bottom is likely behind us.
ELLIOT WAVES
Very Long Term – All Time
On the all-time quarterly chart, the most recent wave labeled (2) retraced exactly 0.618 of wave (1). Given that wave (1) spanned roughly 40 years, it likely completed a Cycle—possibly even a Super Cycle—advance. Wave (2) unfolded as a corrective zigzag, a classic wave-two structure. It’s possible this completed the entirety of wave (2) (blue count); however, we can’t rule out an extended wave (2) in the form of a larger flat or zigzag (red count). For now, I’m treating the blue count as primary for the next move.
The wave about to begin would be a Cycle or Super Cycle wave (3), implying a potentially very aggressive advance. I’ve charted a moderate slope initially, but it could steepen markedly; we’ll gauge the true slope as more subdivisions off the bottom develop.
Assuming a typical wave (3) extension of 1.618× wave (1), the projection targets $1,200–1,300, with the stock around $315 today. In other words, a fourfold move over the next 3–10 years wouldn’t surprise me—and that would be just wave (3).
Short Term
On the short-term frame, UNH has likely formed an impulse off the bottom in either the blue or green count. With probabilities roughly even, the next step is an impulse of higher degree—wave 1 of the blue count on the long-term chart.
SUMMARY
UnitedHealth’s bear phase looks finished on the tape. August printed a bullish Harami; the weekly carved a Tower Bottom; and the 10D/15D frames have turned constructive—together arguing for a durable low.
Structure: an initial impulse off the bottom appears complete (blue/green counts), with a higher-degree impulse (wave 1 on the long-term chart) likely unfolding next. After wave 1, a 0.382–0.50 retrace for wave 2 would be a healthy reset before a larger advance. Invalidation sits at the recent cycle low; holding above it keeps the impulse thesis intact.
Signals to confirm: weekly closes above recent supply pivots, expanding breadth of higher highs/lows on the daily, and continued MACD widening on the weekly. Near term, allow for volatility—pullbacks should hold rising supports if the bottom is real.
Non-technical backdrop (briefly): pricing power and elevated medical-cost trends can act as a tailwind, but the forecast rests on the technicals.
Bottom line: early stages of a new up-leg with pullback risk; bigger upside opens on confirmed wave-1 strength and a shallow wave-2 reset.
