Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
Natural Gas remained undecided today, but it has a clear shot to set up mid-term momentum tomorrow. The candles give us crisp levels of worry and relief—let’s map the odds.
CANDLES
Natural Gas continued to build on the daily frame, neither rejecting nor confirming any path. It attempted to clear the 100 DMA, but the first try failed. Focus tomorrow shifts to the 2D frame, which remains tilted bearish after a strong Bearish Engulfing. A closure above the prior red candle’s high would negate the bearish odds and open a path to higher prices. A closure below the green candle’s low would likely mark a local—or larger—top. A closure below the red candle’s low could confirm the 2D top, depending on other conditions. These are the three decisive options; any outcome in between will require additional assessment.
We also keep the 15D frame risk in view, though its closure is on September 21.
Short term: neutral, pending a decision.
Long term: still leaning bearish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
(no changes, just refreshed the charts)
While the early leg up was corrective, the large gap makes it impossible to classify the wave as cleanly corrective or impulsive. That gap injected uncertainty into the EW counts, so for now we’ll lean on the candles and technicals.
If NG pulls back here, it could be either wave ii (purple) or wave v (red). A new lower low—below the purple horizontal line—would invalidate the purple count.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas is neutral, leaning slightly bearish after an unconfirmed—and not yet invalidated—Bearish Engulfing on the 2D frame. Tomorrow will be pivotal for short-term momentum.
The 15D frame remains bearish and would require a very strong two-week rally to reverse. So while the short-term odds are nearly balanced, longer-term bearish pressure still overhangs the tape.
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Happy Trading!
