Oil – Daily Analysis
Oil made a move – let’s evaluate it’s health. In this update, we let candles, momentum, and structure speak: the flip levels to reclaim, the supports that must hold, and the invalidations that turn strength into another leg down. If you plan to be early—not the liquidity—start here.
CANDLES
Oil closed above the prior red candle’s high, and above the 20-EMA (green), which tilts the odds bullish and suggests a bottom may be in. The one concern, it did not close above yesterday’s high, which could matter tomorrow—be careful.
The 2D frame closes tomorrow, and a confirmation there could further solidify the bullish case. However, the 5D just printed a Bearish Engulfing, and today/tomorrow’s strength may simply be an attempt to negate it, setting up a five-day fakeout. Caution is warranted.
Base case unchanged: bearish until a reversal prints—and is confirmed—at least on the weekly frame.
Classical Pattern – Multiple Flags
Oil is forming another corrective bounce. It could resolve as a smaller flag in blue, or morph the cyan and blue flags into a larger red one.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Brief update to the prior assessment: a possible alt ii, in purple, aligned with the larger red flag discussed in the Classical Patterns section.
Summary:
Oil may push a bit higher, but the bounce looks limited. Candles and technicals, taken together, still favor new lows. Mid- to long-term, the bias remains bearish until a reversal is signaled.
Happy Trading!
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