Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
After this week, Natural Gas is squarely on the fence, with conflicting reads across frames. We’ll parse the tape—candles, momentum, and structure—to mark the flip levels that settle direction, the timing windows that matter, and the invalidations that keep us honest. Let’s weigh the probabilities and define what a real break looks like.
CANDLES
After very mixed signals last week, Natural Gas seems to be gaining clarity. The daily closed with an On-Neck combo, while the 5D and weekly printed Bearish Engulfing patterns. The odds are bearish for next week, which also implies a potential recovery attempt on the 15D frame that closes next week. NG needs about 14% to flip this frame bullish in the next 5 days; any other result will be bearish.
The 15D, monthly, and larger frames remain predominantly bearish, keeping longer-term pressure in place.
Short/mid term: bearish.
Long term: moderately bearish; the long-term forecast stands.
The Long Term Forecast was posted on August 7.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
Last Wave
While the early leg up was corrective, the large gap makes it impossible to classify the wave as cleanly corrective or impulsive. That gap injected uncertainty into the EW counts, so for now we’ll lean on the candles and technicals.
SUMMARY:
As discussed earlier, Natural Gas retains a higher probability of a bearish September finish. Following the weekly close, that outcome looks increasingly likely.
Short/mid-term: bearish.
Long term: bearish until negated.
Happy Trading!
