Skip to content
GET STARTED
Loading...
✨ Become a Member and get full access!
Global

Volatility – Daily Update

•
Daily Open Articles Volatility
529

Volatility began yesterday and continued today. What’s the most probable outcome? Let’s interpret the candles.

CANDLES

The key question I can’t answer is why the market rallied yesterday on a volatility uptick, and today barely moved lower while volatility instruments printed another solid green candle—one that confirmed a bottom on the daily and 2D frames and pushed bearish odds onto the 3D frames. Are we seeing a wind change?

Larger frames aren’t especially convincing. The 3D on VX printed an Inside candle, possibly hinting at a bearish reversal. The 5D on VIX (US Volatility, Pepperstone) closed neutral. The 8D on VIXY is a neutral-bearish doji. Meanwhile, several hourly frames are clearly overbought, which will likely trigger some calming.

My read: the market has a good chance of a volatility burst tomorrow. More frames can drift into overbought, and the key will be the supporting technicals, early divergences, and how they behave around major resistance levels. At some point, longer-term odds can step in; recall that volatility instruments remain predominantly bearish on the weekly, 15D, and monthly frames.

I was looking for early hints for tomorrow, but it seems we have to wait for the closing prints.

The Fed announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. EST. The Bank of Canada leads at 9:45 a.m. EST, with a 0.25% cut also expected. That could be an early alert if anything goes off script.

Happy Trading!


Daily Open Articles Volatility
529
Read Next
Commodities
Oil – Daily Analysis
Today, oil extended the rally to roughly 25% since our August 6 call for those who went long with us. A strong move—but now comes the more difficult question: is it time to take some profit, or does the rally still have room to run? Let’s talk probabilities, not headlines. In today’s Oil Daily Analysis, […]
US Indices
SP500 – Daily Analysis
Are the candlemaps ugly enough after today’s move—or is the market preparing to make them even worse? And, more importantly, have you been listening to our recent warnings? The key question now is whether the current SPX weakness remains a contained correction—or whether the index is preparing to accelerate into a much deeper decline that […]
Commodities
Oil – Daily Analysis
Today, oil finally reached our target, delivering roughly a 20% gain since our major August 6 call. A solid move—but after a rally of this magnitude, the more important question is what comes next. And perhaps even more interesting: what do the candles now “think” about the prospects for “lower gas prices”? In today’s Oil […]