Natural Gas – Daily Analysis

CANDLES

I’m glad Natural Gas printed a red doji on the daily today. Had it been green, it would have completed an Advance Block—a three-candle pattern known for its bearish edge. In our case, the red doji is likely a bullish continuation candle. As expected yesterday, the 2D frame confirmed a bottom. The 3D and weekly frames are leaning bullish, and the weekly could even form a Bullish Engulfing. Short- and mid-term frames look constructive with solid odds of building further bullish momentum. Bears face a serious task tomorrow: they need a close below Tuesday’s low—about 5% lower—to flip the daily odds bearish. It’s possible, but the probability looks low. If momentum holds and NG closes the week near current levels, a larger reversal is likely. The 15D remains a major unknown and a key concern.

Short term: bullish
Mid term: bearish until flipped, good odds for flipping
Long term: leaning bearish

ELLIOTT WAVES

UNG – Short Term

UNG continues to look impulsive in both the red and blue counts. We need to see how the current wave ends before constructing the larger structure.

No changes on the NG2 chart. I’m waiting for UNG to complete the necessary waves before assuming a similar structure for NG2.

SUMMARY:

Natural Gas is bullish in the short term and strengthened momentum after today’s close. The bulls’ chances are gaining weight. Until the weekly is decisively flipped, we still treat it—and the larger frames—as bearish. Still, we can finally see light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s not a rapidly approaching train.

The 15D frame, the biggest current risk, remains bearish and would require a rally to continue within the next two trading days to reverse. So while the near-term tilt is up, longer-term bearish pressure still hangs over the tape. Time is running out.

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Happy Trading!