SP500 – Daily Analysis

CANDLES

If SPX had closed just 26 bps lower today, we’d be pulling a bear cloak out of the closet. In that case, bears would be celebrating a strong confirmation of a Dark Cloud Cover, and I’d expect a larger pullback with all the risks on the table. Instead, the index was stick-saved in the final minute and the DCC failed to confirm. In light of this, we’ll treat the 2D and 3D closures as bullish On-Neck/Doji patterns, with elevated odds for continuation higher—though the index may need a few days to digest today’s shakeout and consolidate.

As for NQ, Dow, and Russell, they closed with bullish consolidation/continuation candles. Overall, the market survived a seesaw session and looks ready to explore higher highs.

Short term: SPX — neutral-bullish.
Mid & long term: bullish.

Elliott Waves

Mid Term

Mid-term outlook unchanged: the purple count remains primary; the current wave does not look complete yet.

Short Term

I’m keeping the historical micro charts for SPX so you can follow the evolution of the counts and waves. If you find this adds too much complexity, let me know—I can limit it to just the latest chart.

I removed the blue count as less probable. The green is now primary, and the index is likely starting wave (5) of iii. I’ve introduced a red count as a lower-probability alternative for now, subject to change once the current wave completes.

SUMMARY

After today’s epic failure, SPX regained its bullish bias, along with the broader market. Short term is neutral-bullish, with possible consolidation for a few days. Mid- and long-term odds remain bullish.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Happy Trading!