Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
Natural Gas threw off so many conflicting signals this week that I sifted through dozens of candle maps and mapped prospective paths across several instruments. I believe the puzzle is resolved—here are the final pieces.
CANDLES
With all respect to the big drop over the last two days, I think NG is set for a sizable bounce. None of the short-to-mid frames—from the daily to the 10D—managed to confirm a bearish reversal or negate the previously established bullish odds. The only frame that printed a bearish signal was the 15D; we’ll keep that bias in mind for the next 15 trading days, though the picture could change with the monthly print, which falls mid-cycle in the next 15D period.
Short/mid term: neutral, leaning bullish.
Long term: moderately bearish; the long-term forecast stands.
The Long Term Forecast was posted on August 7.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave – UNG and NG1
I’m showing side-by-side charts for NG1 and UNG. We’ve already discussed UNG’s two potential paths, and the invalidation level remains unchanged. NG1 may have completed a strong bullish flag, with clear targets for both an impulsive (purple) and corrective (red) option. Given NG1’s structure, I’m leaning toward the green path for UNG.
Mid Term – NG2
Last Wave – NG2
Keeping the NG1 and UNG structures in mind, we can revisit the previously outlined purple path for NG2. If NG2 prints a clear bottom in the next few days, a rally—or at least a significant bounce—becomes likely. Among the three, NG1 currently has the cleanest targets.
SUMMARY:
Despite the large drops on Thursday and Friday, Natural Gas did not confirm a reversal or fully negate the bullish odds on the daily–10D frames, leaving better chances for the bulls over the next 1–2 weeks. While the very long-term odds remain bearish, the short- to mid-term outlook is moderately bullish. The next major checkpoint is the September close—where the long-term scale could tip toward higher costs. Candles often signal well in advance whether the winter will be cold or not.
Short/mid-term: neutral-leaning bullish.
Long term: bearish until negated.
Happy Trading!
