SP500 – Daily Analysis
In our daily SP500 analysis, we review candlestick formations across multiple time frames, align them with Elliott Wave structures, and track key technical indicators. This methodology allows us to maintain consistency and clarity while evaluating the market’s path.
CANDLES
The early warnings materialized today, introducing additional risks. SPY and NQ printed a bearish Harami and a Dark Cloud Cover (DCC), respectively. DIA and IWM closed with incomplete DCCs, which carry better bullish odds. Indicators are split, but the closing momentum was bullish, pulling the indices back from dangerous territory; a close at the day’s low would have been more concerning.
The larger momentum remains unclear—we’ll learn more over the next 1–2 days. For now, trends are healthy-bullish.
Short term: SPX — neutral, slightly bullish; risk of confirming bearish combo tomorrow.
Mid & long term: bullish.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
Mid-term outlook unchanged: the purple count remains primary. From a Fibonacci-ratio perspective, it would be ideal for wave 5 to complete here. However, some technicals suggest the current wave is a wave 3 of some degree.
Short Term
Today’s decline, a bit too deep, invalidated the impulsive structure. While a running flat, abc in blue, for a larger wave iv, a typical pattern in strong bull markets, remains possible, we should also watch for an ending diagonal for wave (5) of iii. In the diagonal scenario, a very sharp wave (iv) could unfold, after which the rally would likely resume.
SUMMARY
Short-term, SPX is neutral slightly bullish, with a risk of confirming a top on the daily frame and extending the bearish momentum to the 2D frame tomorrow. Mid- and long-term odds remain bullish.
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Happy Trading!
