SP500 and Nasdaq – Daily Analysis, Road Maps
If you went long on June 1 following this big bull call, you would have enjoyed a handsome 13% gain. Is this the end of it, or is there still fuel left on the back burner? Let’s see whether it’s time to take the bear suit out of the closet, or whether that would be premature. I hope you have read the last two reports carefully. In this daily analysis, we review candlestick formations across multiple time frames, align them with Elliott Wave structures, and track key technical indicators. This methodology allows us to maintain consistency and clarity as we evaluate the market’s path.
Nasdaq – Elliott Waves – Road Map
In the morning I shared an updated chart for NQ on the Discord channel.
So far, it looks like the red path is becoming primary. A break above $24511.15 will invalidate the purple count and we will focus on the red one.
CANDLES
Today at 9:00 a.m. PST, Wednesday’s alert was confirmed (posted on Discord).
Things are getting worse—bears are infiltrating the larger frames. After yesterday’s Bearish Engulfing on the 2D frames of the cash indices, ES and YM futures formed clean Tower Tops on the same frames; NQ and RTY are a bit behind. All four indices printed Bearish Engulfing candles on the 3D frames today, almost guaranteeing lower prices over the next 3 trading days—into Tuesday, September 30, the last day of the month. The weekly candles are in big danger tomorrow; if the selloff continues, they could close with strong bearish combos. The monthly still looks healthy-bullish for now, but that may change.
Short term: SPX — bearish.
Mid term: SPX — bullish, risk of a flip.
Long term: SPX — bullish.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
While the purple count remains primary, the green is gaining weight, and I’ve placed a tentative target—the green rectangle—in case the green odds prevail.
Short Term
The purple count is losing ground. If momentum continues, the red count would be next to go. A break below $6,508.75 would likely make the green scenario, discussed for the mid-term chart, primary.
SUMMARY
After SPX and the other majors signaled a strong short-term top, bears reinforced the move and extended it to the 3D frames. If there’s no pause tomorrow, the weekly frames could also flip bearish, which would be a major concern and could have a significant impact on the monthly closure on Tuesday. It seems we’ll have a lot to discuss in the weekly report.
Short term: Bearish
Mid term: bullish, with a high risk of change.
Long term: bullish.
As discussed on September 24: “My theory—event-based speculation—is that this correction will likely be sharp and relatively shallow, lasting about 2 weeks.” That hypothesis stands.
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Happy Trading!
