SP500 – Daily
The S&P 500 is reviewed through our established multi-frame methodology, combining candlestick analysis, technical indicators, and Elliott Wave structures. This approach helps us track momentum shifts with precision, measure probabilities across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons, and outline the most likely paths forward. Today’s Daily Analysis applies this framework to interpret the latest market signals and assess potential scenarios.
CANDLES
SPX closed today with bullish continuation candles on the daily and 2D frames (ES). SPY, QQQ, and DIA also formed bullish candles. The only lagger is IWM, but the trend is healthy there. After making a new ATH today, the chance of an extended correction has greatly reduced. Perhaps the large odds showed their upper hand.
Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term: SPX — neutral, leaning bullish
Long term: SPX — bullish
Elliott Waves
SPX
Mid Term
It looks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are realigning, indicating that wave 3 can continue. The purple count remains primary. The green count stays on the chart, but its probability has decreased.
Short Term
The wave SPX has printed since September 25 is likely a leading diagonal, not an ending one—potentially wave 1 of a larger wave v of (iii). If this hypothesis is correct, wave v could take 2–3 weeks to develop.
SUMMARY
SPX and the other majors (except Russell) closed with solid bullish signals, suggesting the correction may be over and a rally ahead. Short-term odds are bullish, with a good chance of reconfirming the same for the mid-term. If Elliott Wave signals are correct, the index has just started wave 3 of some degree—presumably wave 3 of v, as shown in purple. The next two days will be important for settling the 3D and weekly odds.
Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term: SPX — neutral, leaning bullish
Long term: SPX — bullish
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Happy Trading!
