Volatility – Monthly Analysis
We always begin our weekend series with VIX—one of the most important tools in our strategy arsenal. Let’s hear what its candles and indicators are telling us and what they suggest about the future.
CANDLES
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
The monthly closure for volatility instruments was eventful. VIXY printed a strong bearish continuation, extending the Three Black Crows it recorded in July. VIX formed a potential bullish Harami (requires confirmation), while VX ended with a Thrusting Line, a pattern typically associated with bearish continuation. Technically, VIX recorded a rare 8/20 EMA bearish cross that, in most cases, has led to multi-month or multi-quarter bear markets. A monthly MACD bear cross on VIX further solidified the bearish case.
The weekly closure was mixed: VIXY and VIX formed bearish combos, while VX leaned closer to neutral. On the daily frames, none of the instruments were able to confirm a bullish move; odds remain neutral to bearish at best.
Overall, the short- and mid-term outlooks are slightly bearish, and longer-term frames remain under sustained bearish pressure.
Classical Pattern – Flag
(no change, just a refreshed chart)
Technical odds still favor the bears. As discussed in June, a move into the single-digit zone (below $10) remains on the table, though such a decline would likely take months—if not quarters—to unfold. This view remains intact.
Happy Trading!
