Nasdaq – Monthly Review
Since April 22, those riding with us have captured ~37% on Nasdaq. Will the September monthly close and the October 3 drawdown change the long-term target? This report reviews the latest signals, notes any adjustments, and lays out the probabilities for the next move.
CANDLES
My heart skipped the beat a minute before the Nasdaq close, but bulls kept it in check. As a result, the weekly closing print was just a few points above the previous week high, printing a bullish continuation candle. At the same time, the daily did not close below the Thursday’s low and saved the index from a very strong bearish daily close. The most typical path for the next week in such conditions would be an early pullback, followed by a recovery by the end of the week.
The monthly close was a solid bullish continuation candle which makes it the 6th green candle in a row. At this point, the monthly and larger frame remain healthy bullish.
Statistical Analysis
The long term statistical analysis posted on the last day of May remains intact.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
The blue count remains primary. At this point, there’s a chance wave iii is extending, which would reclassify the current rally as wave iii of 3 rather than v of 3, as shown on the chart.
SUMMARY
Nasdaq closed September with solid bullish continuation candles, and those odds clearly carried into Friday’s action. While a short-term pullback is possible, the mid- and long-term outlook remains firmly bullish.
Happy Trading!
