Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
Temperatures are dropping, charts are heating up—time to ask the age-old question: is it time to stock up on firewood, or will Natural Gas light up on its own? In this weekly review, we’ll weigh the latest candle formations, check technical confirmations across multiple frames, and evaluate the probabilities for what’s next in the commodity’s ever-volatile path.
CANDLES
This was written in the weekly on September 20: “With all respect to the big drop over the last two days, I think NG is set for a sizable bounce. None of the short-to-mid frames—from the daily to the 10D—managed to confirm a bearish reversal or negate the previously established bullish odds. The only frame that printed a bearish signal was the 15D; we’ll keep that bias in mind for the next 15 trading days, though the picture could change with the monthly print, which falls mid-cycle in the next 15D period.“
After September’s spectacular Tower Bottom on the monthly, Natural Gas reinforced the mid-term with bullish closures on the weekly and 10D frames, while the daily has held neutral and avoided a strong bearish flip.
Overall, NG is bullish until reversed.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
As I discussed earlier, investors should be prepared for a 70–140% rally over the next few months/quarters. No change to this hypothesis.
Last Wave
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas closed September with several convincingly bullish signals and reinforced that intent on multiple mid-term frames with the weekly close. Natty is working on an impulse of a higher degree which, if successful, would begin the path to double digits, as discussed earlier. Natural Gas appears on track to raise heating costs over the next 1–2 years—stacking some firewood might not be a bad idea after all.
Short/mid-term: bullish.
Long term: bullish.
Happy Trading!
