Silver – Monthly Review
Silver is whispering tells most will miss. We won’t. This review pulls threads from cycles we mapped years ago and from analogs buried in pre-digital pit tape—signals that rarely surface together. It’s a peculiar alignment with real consequences for the next leg, and it’s worth your full attention.
CANDLES:
Silver closed September with a bullish candle which stretched way above BB. As a result, the October’s candle is printing for now entirely above, and this is the risk. Silver closed the weekly with bullish odds again. The daily on Friday failed to overcome the Thursday’s doji and it could lead to a pullback if confirmed.
Overall, silver is bullish until reversed.
RSI
Silver continues to stretch the weekly RSI, pushing it toward a record, though there is still some room left. As the top has yet to form, the percentage-based projected targets will be adjusted once it is in place.
Elliott Waves
Long Term
(no changes in this section, just refreshed the chart)
Silver has reached the target zone and is still signaling a possible move higher. Technicals support the hypothesis that the current wave is either C or 3, with a potential bullish path shown in blue. A decisive break above the 2011 high would likely invalidate the bearish red path. Note that in commodities, wave v can exceed wave iii.
Mid Term
Signals suggest the advance that began in September 2022 has likely extended into a terminal wave v. With wave 5 now longer than wave 3, the risk of a sharp, potentially near-term reversal remains highly elevated.
SUMMARY
Silver remains moderately to strongly bullish in the short–mid term, with momentum and structure supporting follow-through after September’s close. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the advance that began in 2022 has extended wave 5 beyond wave 3, leaving the current leg without a well-defined target.
On the weekly frame, RSI has pushed above 80—a hyper-stretch that, in our sample, has always preceded significant bear phases. The key question is timing and depth of the reversal—whether it arrives after a new ATH (a less favorable outcome in EW terms) or before.
=====
