USD/CAD – Monthly Analysis
USD/CAD — what’s next? The Greenback or the Loonie? Will a former BoC governor as PM make a difference? Let’s see what the candles say—they’re rarely wrong.
This analysis breaks down the long- and mid-term outlook for USD/CAD (and CAD/USD), leveraging technical indicators, Elliott Waves, and historical patterns to frame what’s next for the Canadian dollar. Let’s look at the latest signals.
CANDLES
USD/CAD
The September close was impressive for the Greenback.* The pair finished the week with several confidence-building bullish candles and combos on the monthly, 15D, and weekly frames. The 15D just flipped its 8/20 EMA bullish—a notably sticky event. The last time this occurred, the bull market lasted about three years and the USD gained roughly 16%. Overall, the Loonie is on track to lose value in the mid to long term.
*Disclosure: It was painful to type this analysis as a Canadian.
ELLIOTT WAVES
CAD/USD
Long term chart remains the same.
Wave 3 targets:
CAD/USD – 0.67 – 0.58
USD/CAD – 1.49 – 1.72
USD/CAD
This chart has been tracked since 2021 and remains practically unchanged.
Two main counts:
Blue (primary):
Wave 4 complete.
Next target: $1.68-1.80
Green:
The pair works on wave 5 of a Leading Diagonal
Next target: $1.50-1.75
Target by a 5-year flag: $1.73
SUMMARY:
The Canadian dollar (CAD) remains in a prolonged bearish trend following its annual close, while the U.S. dollar strengthens on firm technical footing.
Despite projections for a moderate CAD recovery, the technical picture does not support it. Persistent bearish formations point to further downside rather than stabilization.
Outlook: CAD remains weak against USD. Even with calls for stabilization or recovery, the technical profile continues to favor an extended bearish trajectory.
Happy Trading!
Dollar Index: DXY
https://investingangles.com/category/currencies/usd/
