Russell 2000 – Monthly Review
Those who went long on June 9 should be sitting on an unleveraged 16% gain in the Russell 2000. In this update, we read beneath the tape—candles, momentum, and wave structure—to judge whether it’s time to change the skin or whether the bulls have a different plan.
CANDLES
The Russell 2000 closed September and Q3 with solid bullish continuation signals. While the weekly looks softer than usual and allows for additional consolidation, those odds aren’t confirmed. Overall, the index remains bullish until reversed.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
The long-term outlook remains unchanged. The target for wave V has been minimally reached, though there’s still a chance the wave could extend. A few more months like September, and I’ll be prompted to update the projection.
Mid Term
Russell is rapidly developing an important signal that supports the blue count added today. If this hypothesis confirms, Q4 and potentially Q1 of 2026 could be nothing short of spectacular.
Inverse Head & Shoulders
Back on June 9, I highlighted an Inverse Head & Shoulders. On August 10, the pattern added a larger-degree shoulder. As noted then, “RUT could be looking at the potential for an enormous 30% rally over the next 5–10 months.” That assessment stands—the index is slicing through the first target area like a knife through butter. Note that the IHS target would place RUT near the midpoint of the most typical Fibonacci target (blue rectangle) on the mid-term chart.
Summary:
Russell’s long-term posture remains decisively bullish. Short-/mid-term volatility is possible—and fairly normal—but likely contained.
With trends and technicals in solid shape, continued upside is the base case. Multiple methods converge on similar targets. The index appears embedded in a powerful advance that could persist for months, potentially quarters.
Happy Trading!
