Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
We’re analyzing Natural Gas through a layered approach—candles, core technicals, and Elliott Waves—so we can spot momentum shifts and manage risk across short, mid, and long horizons. In today’s note, we keep the order consistent: read the candles, seek technical confirmation, then use EW structure to map the likely paths.
CANDLES
Yesterday I was skeptical about a confirmation, but I have to admit the initial bearish momentum was strong: Natty not only confirmed the daily top, it also printed a Bearish Engulfing on the 2D frame, signaling higher odds of a continued decline over the next 1–2 days.
Tomorrow’s weekly closure will be extremely important. A Bearish Engulfing would likely set up a multi-week decline. If NG avoids a bearish close and holds above the 200 WMA, I would take it as a good sign for a continued rally.
So far, all trends remain bullish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
While there isn’t full confirmation yet (due to the gap), the force of the current decline is more consistent with a larger corrective wave iv, and I’ve added a target on the chart. A break below $3.444 would invalidate the i–v impulsive structure.
Flag
NG broke through the lower boundary of the tentative flag, possibly invalidating it and completing a Triple Top instead. Tomorrow’s session will likely outline the next short-term move.
SUMMARY:
Natty flipped bearish in the short term, with a high risk of that momentum extending to the weekly frame tomorrow. The weekly close will likely define the next short- and potentially mid-term move.
Short term: bearish
Mid term: bullish, high risk of flipping bearish
Long term: bullish
Happy Trading!
