SP500 – Daily Analysis
The S&P 500 is analyzed through a multi-frame approach that combines candlestick patterns, technical indicators, and Elliott Wave structures. This framework helps identify shifts in momentum, assess the strength of prevailing trends, and outline possible paths across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons. Today’s daily update follows this method to interpret the latest market signals and define key levels for the next move.
CANDLES
It was an indecisive day today. None of the majors were able to confirm direction on the daily and 2D frames. The weekly frames are balancing on a rope—a move of a few dozen basis points up or down can change everything. In other words, tomorrow is likely to be D-day (D for decision).
I reviewed the daily odds by sector: Financials, Industrials, Communication Services, Energy, and Health Care closed with solid bearish candles. Technology and Consumer Staples were bullish, but rather weak. Will Tech and Staples hold the fort tomorrow? Let’s wait for Friday’s close.
Short term: SPX — neutral
Mid term: SPX — bullish so far; moderate risk of flipping, watch Friday’s close
Long term: SPX — bullish
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
No changes yet to the mid term. The purple count remains primary and the green count stays on the chart.
Short Term
No changes in this view as well.
At the micro level, ES held $6,743.50 and technically completed a 1–3–5 impulse up, forming the minimum number of waves needed. Wave 3 was unusually short but still longer than wave 1. This spot would make wave (iii) exactly 1.618× the length of wave (i), one of the most typical ratios. If so, we can expect a rather shallow pullback into the wave iv area, possibly covering the entire length of wave v of (iii).
Micro Level – All Indices
At this point, none of the indices were able to form a clean impulsive wave down at the micro level. Most likely, they are corrective waves of various structures. In general, this is positive news, as it reduces the risk of larger corrections. Impulsive waves of a higher degree are still possible if the initial waves morph into a leading diagonal. For now, we have to wait for larger waves to develop.
SUMMARY
SPX and other indices ended Thursday with rather indecisive signals. On Friday, we’ll be watching the weekly close and momentum readings across several shorter frames. The stance remains neutral, with the risk of momentum bleeding into larger frames. The end of the week will be pivotal for confirming direction.
Short term: SPX — neutral
Mid term: SPX — bullish, risk of change this week
Long term: SPX — bullish
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Happy Trading!
