Dollar Index – Weekly Review

CANDLES

The Dollar Index is gaining bullish momentum. A few days ago, it technically confirmed a bottom on the 10D frame. Today it closed the weekly above the 20-week EMA, repeating the signal last seen in October 2024 that led to a serious rally. The daily closure today is neutral to bearish and needs confirmation. So far, the daily trend is bullish; the Greenback pierced through the 50 and 100 DMA earlier this week.

But this is all noise in the grand scheme of things. Yesterday, for the first time in history, the Dollar made a 50/200 quarterly MA bullish “golden” cross, which potentially signals a super rally for a very long time. I had been waiting for this signal for three years, following the 100/200 QMA cross. Here are the historical charts—you can see the $135–153 targets placed there in 2022. They still remain intact. Let’s see if the signal confirms on December 31.

ELLIOTT WAVES

A minor update to the Dollar’s long-term targets: while the targets for wave 5 in blue and red remain the same, I’ve added a potential target for the latest flag—a red rectangle.

Road Map

Dollar could be developing an upward impulse and is likely in the middle of wave iii. I’m keeping the potential blue count for one more lower low, but its probability is minimal.

SUMMARY

The Dollar developed so many bullish signals across multiple fronts this week that it is highly likely bullish in the short and mid term. We also remember that, long term, the Dollar has leaned bullish for many quarters, and the 50/100 QMA “golden” cross just added another boost to that view.

The question now is how—and when—other world currencies that pair with the Dollar will respond, and what this means for precious metals and crypto.

Happy Trading!