Silver – Weekly Analysis
Sometimes a single chart signal prompts a reconsideration of many hypotheses. Silver just printed two—one of them a freshly minted all-time high. Let’s look at the metal from various perspectives and evaluate the impact.
CANDLES:
Silver advanced this week as expected, but there’s a concern. Friday likely printed a bearish Inside combo on the daily. The weekly formed Three White Soldiers—a “Runaway Train” when paired with certain technical indicators. The risk of reversal is high, especially if the daily confirms on Monday/Tuesday.
Overall, silver remains bullish until reversed, but the daily is neutral, leaning bearish.
RSI
Silver continues to stretch the weekly RSI, and I think it’s very close to a top—if it isn’t already behind us. Once the top is confirmed, I’ll adjust the percentage-based projected targets.
Elliott Waves
All Time
Above is the evolution of the all-time chart, which I’ve just updated. The new ATH could be near the top of wave 3 of (3) in red. In that case, I would expect a sharp wave 4 down—potentially losing up to 40%—without breaking the impulsive structure of wave (3). Note that wave (3) must be an impulse; in other words, it cannot be a diagonal.
Another option—touched on earlier—is the blue count. The new ATH would mark the end of a Super Cycle Leading Diagonal for wave (I). This would be the worst case, as wave (II) would tend to retrace to the origin of wave (I) and could be exceptionally sharp and aggressive. The first signs favoring the blue count would be extreme agility and an impulsive structure in the downward wave. A break below $30.35 would likely invalidate the red count and further reinforce the odds for the blue.
Last Wave – Micro
Now let’s talk about the second signal. Silver may have formed an impulse off the top. Two paths are now most probable: the red count points to a smaller correction—possibly near its end—while the blue count suggests an impulse of a higher degree, signaling more losses ahead.
SUMMARY
Silver flipped to neutral with elevated odds of turning bearish short-term. Mid/long term remains bullish but overextended; a likely daily Inside combo and weekly Three White Soldiers with stretched RSI raise reversal risk. Two paths: a smaller red-count correction near completion, or a higher-degree blue-count impulse implying deeper losses. With a firming Dollar and miners cracking (GDX ~−5%), caution is warranted; let Monday–Tuesday prints confirm.
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