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US Indices

SP500 – Daily Analysis

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Daily Nasdaq Open Articles SP500
610

The S&P 500 stands at a peculiar crossroads tonight — where bullish dreams and bearish warnings overlap like two mirrors facing each other. Every frame whispers a different story: one insists the rally isn’t done, another swears the decline has already begun. The daily candle… it didn’t confirm, but it didn’t deny either. Momentum is split, trends are conflicted, and one wrong tick tomorrow could flip everything we thought we knew.

Something is brewing — but which side of the mirror will we step through?

CANDLES

Today, if all indices had closed like IWM, I would go all-in long. But they didn’t, and IWM’s move was not very convincing, considering the technicals. SPY, DIA, and QQQ were not able to confirm the bullish Harami formed yesterday, and the odds remain bearish. At the same time, the 2D closure was technically concerning. Price lost the 8-EMA support, something it has not done since the Feb–Apr period. The short term remains bearish until a confirmed reversal. The bulls missed the chance for an immediate recovery; now everything will be harder.

Some larger momentum readings will be recorded tomorrow—so far, the mid term is bearish.

Short term: SPX — bearish until a bullish signal confirms
Mid term: SPX — bearish
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish

Elliott Waves

Mid Term

At this point, the green count has stronger technical support, though the purple remains on the table. The most statistically probable targets for both counts are shown on the chart.

Correction

The EW structure relies on many assumptions (another gap today), which naturally reduces the quality of forecasts. Earlier today, I shared a possible path on Discord. So far, SPX is following it. Let’s see how it unfolds tomorrow. Both green and blue remain on the table.

SUMMARY

SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq remain bearish after today’s close. The Russell, by contrast, formed a bullish setup. To satisfy both camps tomorrow, market would need to take a significant drop (2–3%) followed by a V-shaped, sizable recovery.

This is pure speculation, but one sequence of events that could produce such a move is rising panic about a government shutdown, suddenly resolved by a behind-the-scenes deal—giving the market the necessary optimism.

For now, bearish pressure is building on the short- and mid-term frames.

Short term: SPX — bearish until confirmed otherwise
Mid term: SPX — bearish
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish

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Happy Trading!

Daily Nasdaq Open Articles SP500
610
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