$AAPL – Statistical Call –
The statistical event we discussed 10 days ago has now been recorded, giving us substantial data for analysis. Did you follow our call on Apple from July 20 that led to a 20+% rally? Curious about what else is waiting to be uncovered? Let’s dig in.
CANDLES + Stats
On October 15, Apple recorded a 100/200 DMA golden cross. As noted a few weeks ago, this event could mark the beginning of a rally that may unfold over the next 1–2 years.
Looking back to 2000, every prior instance was followed by a substantial advance, with gains ranging from 15% to 414%. After removing the two outliers (8% and 1030%), the average outcome was about 124% and the median was 89%, with rally durations typically lasting 1–3 years. Some cases began with a dip but recovered.
Bottom line: Apple has a high probability of a multi-month to multi-year advance, with a realistic path to doubling over 1–3 years. The very mild (8%) and extreme (1030%, 2003–2006) outcomes remain possible but are statistically less likely.
From the candles prospective, AAPL could be forming a bottom and has a chance to mitigate or negate the weekly bearish candle. The monthly and 2M frames are bullish and technically healthy.
Elliott Wave
No changes in the EW department.
Mid Term
Long Term
Apple most likely completed a 35% correction in April and is now possibly beginning to form a major impulsive wave to the upside. At this stage, the move is interpreted as either wave (5) in purple or wave (3) in blue on the long-term chart.
SUMMARY
AAPL continues its rally on solid technical footing, now supported by the 100/200 golden cross.
As noted on July 20, 2025: “It would be reasonable to anticipate Apple gaining 50–70% over the next 3–4 years, or even potentially doubling in value.” The forecast now has statistical backing and is strengthening on the probability side.
Happy Trading!
