Oil – Weekly Analysis
Oil is down ~25% since June, exactly along the path we’ve been flagging for months—and I hope our members stayed on the right side of it. In this weekly report, we’ll pressure-test the current roadmap against the latest candles, trends, and momentum, reconcile it with the higher-frame structure, and, if the tape demands it, recalibrate the forecast without mercy.
CANDLES
On Friday, oil closed both the weekly and 8D frames with bearish continuation candles. Meanwhile, the daily printed a bullish Harami Cross with some technical backing, giving it a fair chance to mark a short-term bottom, if confirmed. Overall: daily leans closer to neutral, while all larger frames remain firmly bearish.
8/20 EMA Quarterly Cross
(from the Jul 18 analysis)
As we flagged in mid-July, oil was on track for a rare technical bearish event. On September 30, the 8/20 quarterly EMA bearish cross was officially recorded. It has occurred only five times before, and all previous instances led to major declines ranging from 36% to 70%, with an average drawdown of 53%. If history rhymes, the statistical target for this move falls within the marked rectangle, with the average pointing to around $33. This suggests the bear market in oil may persist for another 1–2 years.
It is also worth noting that the 50/100 quarterly MAs are about to flip bearish. There is no record of previous occurrences, but this one will likely reinforce the long-term bearish odds.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
If oil breaks below $54.735 (the April low), I’ll likely discard the red count for a potential ABC flat and elevate the blue count as primary, targeting new lower lows.
Micro Wave
At the micro level, oil is likely developing wave (iii). Every bounce so far has been corrective.
Classical Patterns – Flags
Oil has finally reached the primary target we outlined back in June. From here, the focal point is the April low at $54.735—how price behaves around that level will define the next chapter.
Summary:
Oil remains bearish across all frames after the monthly and weekly closes—except the daily, which is attempting to carve a bottom, albeit with low odds at this point.
Price has reached the major target and is approaching a pivotal support. A clean break would open a path to further losses. We’ll track the daily developments and adjust the roadmap as the tape dictates.
Happy Trading!
