Bitcoin – Mid Term Forecast

CANDLES

This week was dramatic for BTC holders. The coin dropped about 15% from the recent top and flashed several concerning signals. A few days ago, BTC printed a very strong Bearish Engulfing on the 10D frame. Today, it confirmed a reversal with a Dark Cloud Cover on the weekly. On the daily, it’s already flirting with the 200 DMA, looking ready to break. Overall, the picture is increasingly bearish, and momentum is building.

Elliott Waves

I see multiple reasons to think the impulse that BTC began in November 2022 is complete. The most troubling: wave 5 appears to be the longest and it finished as an ending diagonal—two major red flags in EW theory. I’d prepare for materially larger losses ahead. If this was wave (1) of a higher degree, wave (2) typically retraces 50–62% of wave (1). With the ending diagonal completed, a return to the origin around $49,577—about a 60% drawdown from the top—would be well within historical norms.

On the micro chart, there’s a fair chance BTC is forming an impulse down—already roughly 15% off the top—though I’d like to see additional confirmation points for the wave.

Broadly, Bitcoin (and crypto more generally) may be facing a substantial drawdown into late 2025, with the bear market potentially extending into 2026.

Happy Trading!