SP500 – Daily Analysis
The S&P 500 is moving exactly as projected, responding to the weekend signals with precision and now approaching a pivotal decision zone. In today’s Daily Analysis, we break down the key levels, candle structures, and probabilities that could define the next major move—continuation or reversal.
CANDLES
Last week we flagged the risk of potentially bearish 5D and 10D closures today. After seeing the tape, it’s clear SPX and the other indices were lifted on Friday and Monday to avoid direct bearish closes on those frames via Bearish Engulfing or Dark Cloud Cover combos. The candles that did print aren’t decisive without strong confirmations—call them a 50/50.
Meanwhile, the daily and 2D posted strong bullish candles and combos, reinforcing short-term momentum.
Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term: SPX — neutral
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish
Elliott Waves
Short Term
Today’s rally took the blue count off the table. The purple count remains, but its odds will drop sharply once SPX prints a new ATH. From there, the roadmap is straightforward: a target near $6,875 for wave (iii) and roughly $7,000 for wave (v). This assumes wave (iii) extends 1.618× wave (i); it can run longer, which would push wave (v) higher accordingly.
Mid Term
On the grand scale, the purple 4 remains in play. From a technical-indicator standpoint, there’s still no clear preference between the purple and green counts.
SUMMARY
The last two daily moves pulled the index (and the market) out of bearish grips, turning the short term strongly bullish while keeping the long term moderately bullish. The mid term is still to be decided on Friday. A new ATH in the next few days would further reduce bearish odds and lay the groundwork for a 200–250 point rally in October–November.
Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term: SPX — neutral
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish
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Happy Trading!
