Oil – Daily Analysis
WTI crude oil tried to build on yesterday’s bounce—but is this a trend change or just a larger counter-trend rally? In today’s oil technical analysis, we break down WTI/Brent with multi-timeframe candlesticks, trend structure, support/resistance, and EMA/MACD momentum to map the next move: bearish continuation or a developing bottoming setup. We’ll also outline the key invalidation levels and the weekly outlook traders should watch.
CANDLES
Several bullish formations yesterday pushed the commodity higher and confirmed a bullish flip on the daily. Unfortunately, there were no momentum readings today, and we’ll have to wait until tomorrow for a clearer direction. So far, the 2D looks promising, but let’s be patient and remember that yesterday oil closed the 10- and 15-day frames with solid bearish candles.
Short term: bullish (daily only)
Mid term: bearish, potential change
Long term: bearish
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
Oil likely completed wave 3 and bounced into wave 4. Wave 4 looks corrective so far. The distance between the wave 1 bottom and wave 4 top is 3 bps. A move above $60.205 (see chart below) will overlap these waves, invalidate the impulse, and prompt another count—possibly a larger ABC (chart above) —to become primary.
Micro Wave
Classical Patterns – Flags
Summary:
Oil flipped bullish on the daily frame—that’s it for now. Bulls need to work hard to turn the 2D frame bullish tomorrow. Any move above $60.205 (the Oct 2 low) will invalidate the impulsive structure of the wave down, signaling a potential change in direction. However, given the strong bearish pressure across the mid- and long-term frames, a larger bullish move has lower probability at the moment.
The commodity remains bearish across all mid- and long-term frames until a confirmed weekly signal turns the table.
Short term: bullish (daily only)
Mid term: bearish, at risk of change this week if bullish momentum holds
Long term: bearish
Happy Trading!
