Silver – Weekly Analysis
Silver collapsed 11% and then stalled in the $48–49 range for three straight sessions. Is that a consolidation before the next leg down, or has spot silver (XAGUSD) carved out a short-term bottom? In this weekly silver analysis, we break down price action in XAGUSD, silver futures, and SLV using candlestick structure, Elliott Wave context, momentum signals, and key support/resistance levels to map the next high-probability path.
We’ll lay out what the candles are actually saying — not the “to the moon” hype — and why precious metals are now strictly members-only while retail still chases headlines.
CANDLES:
Silver escalated. After consecutive Bearish Engulfing combos on the daily, 2D, and 3D frames, the metal printed one on the weekly as well. It also broke below the 20 EMA on the daily and has stayed under it for four days — this does not look like a reversal, it looks like consolidation under broken support.
If this momentum continues, silver bears will likely infiltrate the 8D frame, which closes on Wednesday with either a Dark Cloud Cover or a Bearish Engulfing. In the current technical context, either one would be dangerous.
Silver is bearish short and mid term. The long term is still bullish, but that may change on Friday with the monthly close.
RSI
Now the weekly RSI is talking. Silver dropped 11% and touched the minimum boundary for the decline. However, the technicals are still signaling a continued move lower at this point.
Elliott Waves
All Time
As written early in October 18:
What stands out on the all-time silver futures chart is the forceful rejection at the upper boundary of the long-term channel. That’s a major resistance, and this turn could be the start of a sizeable decline. On the annual chart (see the candle section), the technicals lean toward a Leading Diagonal, the blue count.
As a side note, the last two major bear markets—1980 and 2011—saw drawdowns of roughly 90% and 70% from the top. Given today’s extreme technical stretch, a slide into the $10–20 range wouldn’t be shocking and would align with outcomes suggested by the RSI statistical study. We’ll see how this develops.
Last Wave – Micro
From an Elliott Wave perspective, silver is truly at an inflection point. It has almost equal chances to follow the red or the blue path. The blue path implies an impulse down of a higher degree, with much more direct and severe implications. The red count is also bearish, as the metal failed to form an impulse upward.
From both timing and structural views, the ideal move would be the completion of wave c of B sometime on Sunday/Monday in the $50–$51 area. If this hypothesis plays out, wave C could cost silver 15–20% off the top. Note: there is no bullish count here, as I do not currently see a reasonably probable bullish scenario.
SUMMARY
Silver has been overextended for a while and is now paying for it. Bearish signals are cascading like dominoes from the daily frame all the way up to the weekly. If the bulls don’t step in immediately, the metal is at risk of a devastating monthly close.
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