Silver – Road Map
Well. Silver dropped about 15% and bounced, but only modestly. The main question now is: was that bounce just a dead cat, or did the metal clear the worst and start building a base? In this daily silver technical analysis (XAGUSD, silver futures, SLV), we review the candlestick structure, support and resistance, EMA/MACD momentum, and Elliott Wave context. And if you haven’t yet, make sure to review the weekly report — it remains the most comprehensive summary of what already happened and what could be next.
CANDLES:
The momentum that bears built is frightening. Silver is already down 15% and is about to flip the 8/20 EMA bearish. The larger frames are bearish and, if bulls don’t wake up in the next 2 days, the 8-day candles will form a Bearish Engulfing with enormous technical support. The monthly is on track for a Gravestone Doji in the air — above the Bollinger Bands. What could possibly go wrong there?
Silver is strongly bearish short term and mid term, and it has good chances to make a serious wound in the long-term frame.
Elliott Waves
Last Wave – Micro
Silver has possibly completed a huge ~15% impulse down (although I would still prefer to see one more lower low for a clearer structure of wave v), and can now begin a painful and unpredictable wave B of a larger correction. We know that wave B can advance 0.5 / 0.618 / 0.786 of the length of wave A, and there are too many unknowns at this point. The main focus now is the character of the next wave.
As for SLV, it is closely aligned with silver on the impulsive-down hypothesis. Because of a gap in the final leg lower, its exact micro structure will remain unknown.
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