SP500 – Daily Analysis
As expected, today was hectic — especially in the final 90 minutes. Now it’s time to evaluate the closing prints, assess risks, and set probabilities for tomorrow. We’ll review how the technicals and candles are positioned and which side they currently favor. In this SPX technical analysis, we break down the stock market outlook using multi-timeframe candlestick patterns, momentum signals, and key support/resistance levels to define risk, outline the highest-probability paths, and map the next tactical moves.
CANDLES
SPX and SPY printed contradicting combos today. The main drama unfolded in the final 90 minutes as Mr. Powell shared his pearls of wisdom after the rate cut. Bears attacked hard, and if the daily had closed at the low, it would’ve been a huge bear win. However, bulls countered and, in the closing second, pushed SPY above yesterday’s high — likely a continuation combo. At the same time, SPX recorded a Bearish Engulfing by 12 bp. We can’t fully ignore that, even though the technicals still lean upward. My most probable path for tomorrow: a sharp drop followed by recovery.
On the 2D and 8D frames (both closed today), there’s no new cause for concern. They’re overbought, but not dramatically. The monthly remains on track for a bullish close.
Short term: SPX — neutral
Mid term: SPX — bullish
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish
Elliott Waves
Short Term
I think today was wave iv — either the whole thing or wave a of it. There’s a fair chance it extends tomorrow, but a direct move higher – wave v of (iii) – is also on the table.
Mid Term
No changes here.
SUMMARY
The index remains overall bullish, with a heightened risk of a short-term pullback.
Short term: SPX — neutral
Mid term: SPX — bullish
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish
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Happy Trading!
