Lithium – Long Term Forecast
Members who went long on Lithium on August 17 should be sitting comfortably on a 40% gain. With October now behind us, we will evaluate whether it’s time to bank profits or if the metal can stretch higher. In this forecast, we’ll break down the latest signals, candlestick patterns, and wave structure to see what lies ahead for the lithium market.
CANDLES
LIT closed October with an impressive set of bullish continuation candles, accompanied by matching technicals. All trends up to the monthly are now bullish. The weekly price backtested the 200 WMA and now sits solidly above it.
At the same time, the weekly formed a 50/100 MA golden cross, and I ran stats on this rare signal, which has occurred only a few times before. The previous signals triggered an average rally of 115% that lasted, on average, 65 weeks. The chart below projects the current rally assuming an average outcome, targeting a January 2027 finish around $135. As of now, LIT is $62.
ELLIOTT WAVES
I tried to chart Elliott Waves at the micro level, but the exercise is challenging due to multiple potential extensions and very aggressive momentum. So I zoomed out for a helicopter view. The current wave up could be wave (3) of a much larger impulse or wave C of a broad correction. The technical footprint is similar for both paths, so I’ll track them in parallel. The typical targets for each are shown on the chart, and they overlap nicely around $135—also the average statistical target based on technicals. An interesting alignment, isn’t it?
Summary
Lithium has largely confirmed its bullish stance and extended its already strong momentum. The metal remains bullish until signaled otherwise.
Given the challenging micro-level technical conditions and EW structures, we’ll rely on our primary, time-tested method for directional changes—Japanese candlesticks. They’ve been around for over 400 years for a reason.
Happy Trading!
