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Commodities

Silver – Monthly Analysis

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Open Articles Public Silver Weekly
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In prior weekly reviews, I prepared members for a 15–20% decline. Silver has already explored roughly 16% off the top, and the key question is whether the risks are now behind us or this was merely a warm-up. In this monthly silver analysis, we examine XAGUSD, silver futures, and SLV—candlestick structure, Elliott Wave context, momentum signals, and key support/resistance levels—to map the next high-probability path.

CANDLES:

Silver’s candles suggest the metal is in no rush to keep the correction brief. The monthly closed with a potential Spinning Top above the Bollinger Bands and still needs strong confirmation. The weekly chart spooked traders early but recovered into a likely In-Neck bearish continuation candle. The 10D printed a strong DCC that still requires confirmation, and the 1–3D candles attempted to form a bottom but struggled with momentum. Overall, odds lean bearish, but bears still need to show real strength to build on the initial damage.

Short term: Neutral
Mid term: Bearish
Long term: Bullish, with a high risk of a flip in November

Elliott Waves

While the latest long term assessment on October 18 remains intact, we will mostly focus on the short term prospective.

Last Wave – Micro

From an Elliott Wave perspective, silver is different from gold and the difference is very significant. While gold formed the first wave down as a corrective zigzag, silver most likely formed an impulse which could be wave 1 in blue of an even larger impulse or wave A in red of an ABC formation, similar to the one expected for gold. If it was wave 1, wave 2 could be already complete, and the next move in wave 3 would be spectacularly heartbreaking (depends on your position). The chances for wave up to continue to develop are slightly higher, thus the chances for an ABC correction are better at the moment. If the red hypothesis plays, silver is expected to shove off 20-25%. The blue count would be more damaging and we need more data for evaluation.

SUMMARY

After a period of overextension, silver declined aggressively, forming the first wave as an impulse, and is now bouncing in a corrective manner. This move is viewed as consolidation before the next leg lower. The main questions are the complexity of the current wave—presumably B—and the timing and length of the following wave—presumably C.

Silver is bearish mid term and near neutral/consolidating short term. The long term remains bullish, but the outlook is fragile after a monthly close with potentially strong reversal signals. There is a fair chance of an extended bear market for the metal, although several hypotheses still require confirmation.

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Open Articles Public Silver Weekly
856
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