Russell 2000 – Monthly Analysis
In October, RUT tagged the middle of our June target zone, delivering nearly 20% unleveraged gains. With fresh October signals now in place, we can map the highest-probability paths for November and December. In this weekly report, we’ll weigh the latest candles, trend alignment, and structure to separate victory lap from continuation — and define the levels that matter next. Let’s dive in.
CANDLES
The Russell ended October with solid bullish statements on the larger frames. The 2M frame printed Three White Soldiers with meaningful technical support and good odds of another bullish candle before December 31. The monthly is bullish, but moderate. The weekly formed a Dark Cloud Cover; however, its technical backing is weak, and I’d like to see stronger confirmation. The daily closed Friday with a bullish Inside Up.
While the mid-term frames hint at potential early-November softness, the long-term odds still favor continuation of the rally. All trends remain bullish.
Overall, the index remains bullish until at least the weekly frame confirms a reversal.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
The long-term outlook remains unchanged. The wave V target has been hit, and the Three White Soldiers on the 2M frame signal a possible extension.
Mid Term
Russell has been impulsive since April. However, the wave structure isn’t well defined—the impulse likely includes multiple extensions—so I’m tracking several possible counts.
Inverse Head & Shoulders
Back on June 9, I highlighted an Inverse Head & Shoulders. On August 10, the pattern added a larger-degree shoulder. As noted then, “RUT could be looking at the potential for an enormous 30% rally over the next 5–10 months.”
On October 15, Russell reached the midpoint of the first target and has been consolidating rangebound since. So far, I see no reason to change the expectations for the extension.
Summary:
Russell’s long-term posture remains decisively bullish. The index has signaled potential softness for early November, though these initial signs still await confirmation. If they are rejected, the index is likely to continue exploring higher levels.
The outlook remains bullish for months—possibly quarters. Only a developed and confirmed reversal signal on at least the weekly frame would warrant an adjustment to this view.
Happy Trading!
