Wheat – Monthly Analysis
Those who watched the weekly video on October 19 knew what to do — wheat is up ~6% since. Now the question: was that an outlier spike or the start of something bigger? The monthly closing prints will help answer it. In this report, we’ll walk through what happened, why it matters, and which price levels come next.
CANDLES
We sensed it correctly, thanks again to candles: October brought a big shift to the wheat market. The commodity flipped strongly bullish — a monthly and 15D Bullish Engulfing, accompanied by a weekly bottom confirmation, on top of an already bullish daily trend and the 100-DMA in the rearview. If momentum holds, year-end closes could even flip the very long-term odds — but let’s not jump the gun.
Overall, wheat is bullish after the October close, and November is almost guaranteed bullish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
I believe wheat has finally found its bottom at the most probable level we identified back in August 2022 — yes, this chart is over three years old. I’m now considering a rethink of the very long-term outlook, but I’ll need a few months of fresh signals. I may share an updated long-term view in the annual report.
Mid Term
(no changes in assessment – just refreshed the charts)
There is a possibility that wheat has completed a humongous Ending Diagonal, the same structure I’ve been tracking since August. The possible target from here — in an aggressive counter-move — is roughly a double in price.
Short Term
If we zoom in, we can see a possible completion of a double Ending Diagonal. If this hypothesis materializes, a super-strong move — returning the price to 620 and then to 1000 US¢ per bushel in a very short period of time — should not be a surprise.
Per Elliott/Prechter:
SUMMARY:
Wheat likely formed a strong bottom in a very aggressive manner. The commodity is close to completing at least a 10%-off-the-bottom impulse — likely just the first wave higher. Wheat remains strongly bullish until signaled otherwise. If momentum holds through November–December, the year-end prints could be exceptional.
Happy Trading!
============================================================
