Oil – Daily Analysis
In today’s oil technical analysis, we break down WTI using multi-timeframe signals and map the probabilities for the next move.
CANDLES
Oil has been attempting to build a rally, but the efforts have been weak so far. Today it finally printed an 8/20 EMA bullish cross, though the candle was neutral and requires confirmation. No larger frames closed today, so short-term momentum remains undecided. Tomorrow brings multiple closures, including 10D and 15D; both are shaping up as Bullish Harami on fairly weak technicals. Let’s see if tomorrow delivers a decisive shift.
Short term: neutral, leaning bullish
Mid term: moderately bullish
Long term: bearish following October’s close
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
Unfortunately, Elliott Waves don’t offer much clarity either. The advance hasn’t shaped into an impulse to support the red count, which is likely to be invalidated. The blue wave c could still form a diagonal, and I’ve added a purple count to reflect a possible larger corrective structure. For now, they share one thing in common: none has strong odds. We need a decisive impulse in either direction to anchor the next forecast.
Summary:
Oil has been slowly building bullish momentum and remains only marginally bullish in the short and mid term. The advance has been weak, a view supported by Elliott Waves, which have not produced a clean impulsive upward move. From an EW perspective, the commodity likely needs to print a lower low—below the October 20 low—to reset the count for a potential rally.
Short term: neutral, leaning bullish
Mid term: moderately bullish
Long term: bearish following October’s close
Happy Trading!
