Nasdaq – Road Map
Nasdaq, along with the other indices, faces a critical test tomorrow—outlined in our SP500 daily report. But what path is most likely? In this analysis, we’ll read the candles and combos, with a focus on classical patterns and the Elliott Wave structure.
CANDLES
On Wednesday, the market priced in good news for Thursday and closed with Bullish Engulfing candles across all indices. On Thursday, the news failed to materialize and the market negated those signals—a 15–20% probability outcome. Tomorrow, Nasdaq needs roughly 1.4–1.5% to avoid a bearish close on the weekly and 2D frames; that move would also print a daily bullish reversal. Is such a rally possible? Let’s ask Elliott Waves.
Elliott Waves
On the chart above, I marked a red flag expected to complete on Wednesday. Something didn’t happen (a Congress vote, perhaps), and the flag extended in a corrective fashion—slightly reshaped but still respecting a clean channel. Laying the counts, we get a textbook zigzag: wave (a), a failed impulse for (b), and an impulse for (c) that likely ended with an ending diagonal. Wave (c) extended only 0.618× of wave (a), a truncation, with a diagonal in wave v of (c)—a “nuclear combo” that can ignite a strong rally. On the micro level, Nasdaq is building a sizable impulse up; let’s see if it completes by morning.
If the upward impulse finalizes tomorrow, the flag target on the next chart applies. A 4.5–7.5% rally over the next few weeks wouldn’t be surprising, with 5.75% as the ideal target.
