Silver – Weekly Analysis
Today’s rally gave bulls a glimmer of hope—but is it real? We’ll see whether the prior damage was repaired and if another solid leg higher is setting up. In this silver analysis, we read the candlesticks, Elliott Wave context, momentum, and key support/resistance to map the highest-probability path.
CANDLES:
This week reinforced the view that silver is in no rush to complete its correction. The daily failed to form a bottom, while the weekly rejected the tentative bullish odds suggested by the prior weekly candle.
At this point, silver may proceed more slowly than gold. While gold printed a strong Bearish Engulfing on the 10D, silver formed a solid—though less bearish—Dark Cloud Cover. Given the size of these candles, which are turning increasingly bearish, we may need to prepare for months, or even quarters, of a bear market.
Short term: neutral, leaning bearish
Mid term: bearish
Long term: bullish, with a high risk of a flip in November
Elliott Waves
While the latest long term assessment on October 18 remains intact, we will mostly focus on the short term prospective.
Last Wave – Micro
From an Elliott Wave perspective, silver diverges meaningfully from gold. While gold’s first leg down looks like a corrective zigzag, silver most likely formed an impulse—either wave 1 in blue of a larger motive sequence, or wave A in red of an ABC similar to gold’s. Silver now appears to be tracing an extended corrective abc, likely a bearish flag (a flat in EW terms). As with gold, wave c of B may be developing as an ending diagonal. This alignment across the metals reinforces the view of a sharp decline once wave B completes. I expect a sizeable Bearish Engulfing—or a comparable reversal candle—to mark that top. If the red scenario plays out, silver could shed 20–25% from the high. The blue count would be more damaging, though it’s premature to estimate its full extent.
SUMMARY
Silver remains primarily bearish on the short- and mid-term frames while gradually building bearish momentum on the mid/long-term frames. The current move is likely an extended consolidation for wave B after a likely impulsive wave A or 1. At this point, silver is aligned with gold, and both are expected to explore lower lows during a bear market that appears increasingly likely.
The long term remains bullish, but the outlook is fragile after a monthly close with potentially strong reversal signals. There is a fair chance of an extended bear market for the metal, although several hypotheses still require confirmation.
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