Uranium – Monthly Analysis
Those who followed our April 9 call on $UUUU should have enjoyed a 625% surge over six months. Uranium has since pulled back, and we’ll evaluate the probabilities for the next move. As usual, we’ll assess the instrument from multiple angles—candles, technicals, and Elliott Waves. Perhaps the 625% rally was just a warm-up?
CANDLES
UUUU made a significant pullback, and the candles formed a top on the weekly frame. This weakness should not be a surprise after October’s technically stretched monthly close. However, the technicals do not strongly support a continued move lower. Multiple hourly frames are extremely oversold, and there is a fair chance of a counter-strike higher. Friday’s daily close could be the first shape on the horizon—one not yet named. Tuesday’s 8D close will clarify the mid-term momentum direction, which for now leans bearish.
ELLIOTT WAVE
UUUU
Long Term
Mid Term
On August 8, I outlined the long-term outlook for UUUU. The chart below retains the same elements, updated as of today.
UUUU has compressed the timeline, and I’m sharing a slightly updated chart. The technicals currently support the hypothesis that the recent pullback was wave 4 of (3).
Mid Term
Assuming wave 4 is complete, here is the projection for wave 5. Fifth waves often outstretch third waves in commodities, and this is particularly true for uranium-tracking instruments. If UUUU confirms a short-term bottom and reverses the mid-term momentum next week, we could expect wave 5 of (3) to double the price over the next few months.
Below is the historical call from April 9, when I suggested a 138% rally, which turned into a six-month 625% surge.
URA – Global Uranium ETF – Elliott Waves
URA is closely aligned with UUUU. Below are the updated long- and mid-term charts.
Long Term
Mid Term
Happy Trading!
