SP500 – Daily Analysis
I hope you read the weekly report and were prepared for today’s surge. What’s next—go defensive, or not so fast?
In this SPX technical analysis, we break down the outlook across multiple time frames, aligning candlestick patterns, momentum signals, and key support and resistance to define risk, outline the highest-probability paths, and map the next tactical moves.
CANDLES
SPX, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones confirmed bullish reversals on the daily frame. The larger frames that close today put a solid brake on the further spread of bearish odds. All trends remain bullish, and the probability of a continued rally is high.
Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term (weekly): SPX — bearish after the weekly close, leaning toward neutral
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish
Elliott Waves
SPX may have formed wave 1 in green (primary) off Friday’s low, and there’s a chance today’s pullback was all we’ll get for wave 2. If so, the next few days could be remarkably bullish. That said, I’d prefer a 0.50–0.618 retracement for wave 2, which would be healthier technically.
Two alternative counts remain on the table. The blue count envisions a larger flat and would likely be invalidated by a new ATH. The purple count considers an expanding ending diagonal.
Mid Term
There’s a chance the index has started wave 5 in purple, which has a slightly stronger technical foundation. The updated target is shown on the chart, and I believe the index may reach it before the next shutdown.
SUMMARY
The SPX and other majors have overcome short-term bearish pressure and formed strong bullish reversal patterns on the daily frame, while easing bearish odds on the larger frames. The initial momentum is strong, and the rally is likely to continue.
Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term (weekly): SPX — bearish after the weekly close, leaning toward neutral
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish
Happy Trading!
