Oil – Daily Analysis
Oil delivered a solid move and printed several notable signals across multiple time frames. We’ll interpret the candlespeak alongside key technicals, apply Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave context, and determine whether our mid-term path remains intact.
CANDLES
Oil completed a daily bottom and marginally flipped the 8/20 EMA bullish. A close above the 50 DMA (blue line) would have strengthened the case—let’s see if that materializes tomorrow. Until the final minutes, oil was on track for an Inside Up on the 3D frame, but it finished with a bullish Harami instead, which is a bit less constructive. These late changes temper the bulls’ position, and we may need to see stronger momentum. The 2D frame closes tomorrow with a good chance to confirm a bottom and improve short-term momentum.
The 15-day frame formed a bullish Harami with solid technical backing, improving the odds for a monthly flip.
Short term: moderately bullish
Mid term: neutral
Long term: bearish with a risk of change
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
The mid-term outlook remains unchanged. Oil marginally tilted bullish today, but it’s still too early to distinguish between the red and blue counts.
Last Wave
The closing candles were rejected at the upper boundary of the presumed flag. This rejection could trigger another swing lower before a stronger wave up begins. Tomorrow’s move will be instrumental: a decisive break above the flag boundary would open a path toward the targets.
Summary:
Oil is moderately bullish in the short term, with a solid chance to extend momentum tomorrow. If that follow-through occurs, the weekly frame will likely flip bullish.
Short term: moderately bullish
Mid term: neutral
Long term: bearish with a risk of change
Happy Trading!
